The Silent Evidence
"History is written by the survivors, but truth is buried with the fallen."
Survivorship Bias is a logical error where we focus only on successful outcomes (the "survivors") while completely ignoring the failures that followed the same path. This interactive dashboard teaches you how to look for the unseen data.
Step Into the Simulation1. The WWII Armor Paradox
In 1943, the US Military analyzed all returned B-17 bombers from previous raids. They mapped every single bullet hole they found (shown below in red). The commanders advised: "Armor the wings and fuselage where the bullets are hitting!" You have 3 armor plates. Do you follow their advice, or place them elsewhere?
INSTRUCTIONS:
Click on different zones of the bomber diagram to install or remove armor. When you are ready, launch a combat mission of 100 bombers to see their survival rate.
You followed the military commanders' advice and added armor where the returned planes had bullet holes. The fleet's survival rate barely improved. Why?
2. The Startup Success Illusion
We read stories of heroic college dropouts launching tech giants and think: *"Starting a business is highly lucrative."* We study Uber, Airbnb, and Stripe, but fail to research the silent majority of companies that died in their first three years.
Market Observer Dashboard
Currently observing active, highly-valued startups in Silicon Valley.
Based on news, media, and top-tier survivors
3. The Mutual Fund Performance Trick
Investment brochures often advertise mutual funds showing a steady 8% to 10% average annual return over a decade. How do they do it? When a fund performs poorly, the investment company quietly closes or merges it into a successful fund, removing it from historical indices.
The Performance Timeline
Move the slider to see mutual funds dissolve or merge over the decade. Poorly performing funds disappear from the statistics, boosting the survivor average.
4. Biological & Historical Anomalies
Survivorship Bias is not limited to business or war. It is found in veterinary medicine, classical philosophy, and daily life. Explore these classic models.
The Falling Cats Paradox
A 1987 study analyzed cats that fell from high-rise apartments in New York. Paradoxically, cats falling from 7 to 32 stories suffered fewer injuries than cats falling from 2 to 6 stories. Does falling from higher floors shield a cat?
Select a floor to see the veterinary reports and uncover the logical mistake.
Cicero & Neptune's Sailors
The Roman orator Cicero wrote of Diagoras, a skeptic shown votive tablets of sailors who prayed to Neptune during storms and survived. "Where," Diagoras asked, "are the records of those who drowned?"